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Post by Ringel on Feb 13, 2012 16:43:25 GMT -5
I've noticed a persistent rumor about "ultrarare" cards. I decide to run some numbers and calculate the odds of collecting at least one of each card after some number of packs.
For this example I asked "How likely is it you will have at least one of every one of the 42 Templar rares after opening n packs?
100 packs: Approximately 1.04%
150 packs: Approximately 29.89%
200 packs: Approximately 70.68%
250 packs: Approximately 90.26%
300 packs: Approximately 96.99%
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Post by Ringel on Feb 13, 2012 19:28:30 GMT -5
If you open 300 packs, then the chance of having fewer than 5 of one particular rare is approx 15.7%
The chance of having fewer than 4 of one particular rare is approx: 7.2%
The chance of having fewer than 3 of one particular rare is approx: 2.5%
The chance of having fewer than 2 of one particular rare is approx: 0.6%
The chance of having exactly 0 of one particular rare is approx: 0.07%
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Post by Pete on Feb 14, 2012 1:40:20 GMT -5
I like the part where you open 300 packs.
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Zed
Full Member
ACR NoobTuber
Posts: 255
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Post by Zed on Feb 15, 2012 4:54:30 GMT -5
is there a way of finding out just how many packs you have opened? I would be a bit too scared to look i think, got knows what raph and bronto have done lol
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Post by Tuism on Feb 15, 2012 5:14:34 GMT -5
Start a new deck and toss all your cards in, so you know how many there are in total. Then divide by 12  |
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Zed
Full Member
ACR NoobTuber
Posts: 255
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Post by Zed on Feb 15, 2012 5:20:33 GMT -5
one way of doing it I guess cheers Tuism, if i remember ill try that tonight and then try to justify how much cash that translates into |
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Post by Brontobeuf on Feb 15, 2012 9:57:14 GMT -5
There is no ultra rare thing. Just superstitions around low random samples.
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Post by Rob (Roebidoebi) on Feb 15, 2012 10:11:57 GMT -5
There is no ultra rare thing. Just superstitions around low random samples. It depends on how Ubisoft generates the 12 memories per pack... If they generate a big pool of memories in the right quantities and ratios and draw memories randomly from this pool (in the right ratios) it will be OK on the long run. Letting the server generate a random pack of memories on every request may cause problems though as PC's are notoriously not-random. I agree on the small-numbers but - in a truly random environment - the odds of drawing 6 times the same rare (Lorenzo) in a row are smaller that getting hit by lightning. I'm glad to still be alive, and now have enough Lorenzo's for the AH...  |
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Post by Ringel on Feb 15, 2012 10:17:24 GMT -5
Computers aren't random in a particular sense, but unless they messed up (or messed with) the program, the cards should be undetectably random.
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Post by tortimer on Feb 15, 2012 10:25:54 GMT -5
I would think they are random. I don't know though because the odds of the rares I have been getting in the last 50 packs I open is off the chart. I have maybe 4 or at most 5 different rares out of those 50 packs. Like what roebidoebi said I would have a better chance of getting hit by lightning.
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Post by Raphael Majere on Feb 15, 2012 14:01:16 GMT -5
I will do some stats based on the Assassin Rare cards I have. This is only for comparative purposes. please don't use the stats and attack anyone, including myself or the devs. Gold: 77 Ezio Auditore da Firenze - 5 Family heirloom - 11 Forli - 17 History glitch - 8 Juno - 14 Monteriggioni - 12 San Gimignano - 10 Green: 72 Daring experiment - 9 Lassitude - 11 Leonardo da Vinci - 14 Leonardo's workshop - 9 Maria Auditore - 8 Pick your poison - 8 Scientific espionage - 13 Blue: 35 Pantheon - 11 Preemptive strike - 14 Royal intervention - 10 Purple: 71 Caterina Sforza - 10 Copycat - 9 Exit stage right - 11 Lorenzo de' Medici - 12 Niccolo Machiavelli - 15 Pietro Rossi - 8 Political patronage - 6 Red: 66 Abbazia di san Mercuriale - 13 Ancestral discovery - 11 Divine intervention - 10 Doomsday - 6 Novella catacombs - 9 Pagan high priest - 6 Wrath of the righteous - 11 Crime: 50 Forced Charity - 2 Female Fatale - 6 Ezio Auditore, assassin - 5 High-profile assassination - 4 La Volpe - 4 Mario Auditore - 5 Rosa in Fiore - 7 Strategic assault - 4 Secret catacombs - 3 Target practice - 6 Thieves guild - 4 Special thanks: www.hatenintendo.co.uk/acr/table-data.htmlThanks, Baracus! Total number of Assassin rares: 371 Interesting numbers, eh? |
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Post by Ringel on Feb 15, 2012 16:24:29 GMT -5
The low frequency of crime is peculiar, considering crime has the greatest number of rares to pull. I wonder what the algorithm looks like?
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Post by Raphael Majere on Feb 15, 2012 16:27:28 GMT -5
The low frequency of crime is peculiar, considering crime has the greatest number of rares to pull. I wonder what the algorithm looks like? Does everyone else have the same situation? |
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Post by Tuism on Feb 15, 2012 16:28:46 GMT -5
Haven't ever really been arsed to count cards, and my app is updating, and it's 11:30pm right now  |
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Post by Raphael Majere on Feb 15, 2012 16:58:00 GMT -5
it's 530am here. So there. |
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