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Post by jefmajor on Mar 17, 2012 16:54:23 GMT -5
Due to that and the fact there is more [rare, order] in the templars, you have less chance to have a particular order when purchasing a templar pack. So ... wait ... because there are more, the chance of getting one, is less? Eh? OH! Because there are more Order commons and uncommons it skews the chance of getting an Order rare to become less! When you put it that way though and I look at my cards it does make more sense. The distribution of rares amongst the schools that have a 50/50 split does INDEED appear to be random and fairly balanced. The distribution amongst Crime/Assassin and Order/Templar does appear to be skewed. SO that would confirm it, yeah, you do indeed have a lesser chance of getting an Order/Templar/Rare and an Assassin/Crime/Rare than any of the other schools. Thanks for the clarification! We're big boys. We can handle it. |
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Post by Hurdler on Mar 17, 2012 17:08:14 GMT -5
So ... wait ... because there are more, the chance of getting one, is less? I would have to look at the code for the full correct answer, but yes. Let's say you have to choose 1 rare between 10 rares. The chance to get exactly the one you want is 10% If you have to choose 1 rare between 5 rares, the chance to get exactly the one you want is 20%. |
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Post by jefmajor on Mar 17, 2012 17:15:55 GMT -5
Okay, so, boiling down the OP to it's finer elements, we've found that these cards are indeed Ultra Rare:
Castel Sant'Angelo
Cesare Borgia
Uberto Alberti
Charles De La Motte
Just Cause
Marco Barbarigo
Lucrezia Borgia
Templar Sanctum
Octavian De Valois
Royal Decree
Il Carnifice
and
Thieves Guild
Mario Auditore
Secret Catacombs
High Profile Assassination
Strategic Assault
Target Practice
Rosa In Fiore
Femme Fatale
Ezio Auditore, Assassin
Forced Charity
La Volpe
So I have plenty of Ultra Rares. Just, among that smaller sample, I have less of the ones I want. Figures =).
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Post by Tuism on Mar 17, 2012 17:31:15 GMT -5
Broad strokes like this probably doesn't mean too much, for example my 8 Cesares will disagree  I'm not in any way inferring that my single sample disproves the trend, I'm inferring that there really is not too much point trying to predict randomness in any useful way whatsoever |
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Post by Hurdler on Mar 17, 2012 17:31:59 GMT -5
I wouldn't use the word ultra, but more rare, yes.
Note that "Il Carnefice" has a special status due to the fact he is given in your first sequence. So yes, right now if you try to get one, it will be harder, but once the Auction House will be there, I suppose it will be easier to get one.
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Post by Ringel on Mar 17, 2012 17:37:22 GMT -5
I'm glad my statistical analysis was accurate. That's all the gloating I'll do for now.
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Post by jefmajor on Mar 17, 2012 17:43:08 GMT -5
Broad strokes like this probably doesn't mean too much, for example my 8 Cesares will disagree I'm not in any way inferring that my single sample disproves the trend, I'm inferring that there really is not too much point trying to predict randomness in any useful way whatsoever Of course not. In the end everybody has their own subjective experience with these individual cards because they are based on luck, but, luck within luck. As I noted, it's all subjective, and you will never heard me whining about not having enough Octavian De Valios, even though I have only 1 of him too. Being human, though, I will still rageface and cry myself to sleep if I get a second of him before a second Cesare. Damned human nature. Why can't I be a horse or something! ;D |
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Post by Rob (Roebidoebi) on Mar 17, 2012 18:48:07 GMT -5
So how are the packs constructed? First one random rare from 42 and then the uncommons and the commons (max-ed at 4 pet color)? In this case there would be no such thing as an ultra rare. Maybe a slightly skewed distribution of commons, but who cares...
If the rare is picked last however, the max. 4 constraint has a huge impact on the distribution of Templar order rares and crime assassin ones...
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Post by Ringel on Mar 17, 2012 18:55:06 GMT -5
It apparently does have an effect. Possibly on uncommons too, but I haven't tried examining the data.
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Post by Rob (Roebidoebi) on Mar 17, 2012 19:11:30 GMT -5
Side note: I have 33 Templar order rares and only 23 Templar faith rares, so no indication that Templar order rares are more rare than the faith ones on my side...
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Post by Ringel on Mar 17, 2012 19:12:32 GMT -5
What about your other Templar rares? Assassin rares?
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Post by Hurdler on Mar 18, 2012 9:00:47 GMT -5
I think it's a design decision, so we will have to wait for Marc to come back.
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Post by Tuism on Mar 18, 2012 10:06:14 GMT -5
"fixing" this would mean that you get a completely random, unweighted pick out of all the rares, which would mean getting proportionately more order cards in Templar packs and assassin cards in assassin packs. Which doesn't bode well for beginners trying to play other colours families than order. Is that right? Or am I not understanding it correctly? Also, il carnifice has a special rare status cos of him being in the starter. Does the same apply to malfatto? Cos I literally have 13 of the bad boys |
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Post by jefmajor on Mar 18, 2012 12:05:57 GMT -5
Well if there were something to be "fixed" it would be that essentially when you ask the question "Is it random?" the answer is "No." At best it would be "Well ... some of it. Sort of."
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Post by Pete on Mar 18, 2012 12:30:41 GMT -5
WHOA! Stop the press! We all owe Ringel a major apology. When he was the only one saying there was something odd, and we all concluded it was random, he was right all along!!! It just goes to show, when you find yourself in agreement with the status quo, it's time to pause and reflect. Great detective work with the stats.
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