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Post by Pete on Jan 4, 2012 8:38:16 GMT -5
Ok well you start with a deck dont you, so I guess you have to take that out but only buying mixed pack got me this - I didnt remove the starting deck since I dont know the contents.
Assassin Cards : 52 + 44 + 29 + 32 + 5 + 44 = 206
Templar Cards : 58 + 5 + 59 + 43 + 107 + 22 = 294
Total - 500
But some cards have a gold T like animus reboot so is that still a Templar card?
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Post by Tuism on Jan 4, 2012 8:45:15 GMT -5
Ok well you start with a deck dont you, so I guess you have to take that out but only buying mixed pack got me this - I didnt remove the starting deck since I dont know the contents. Assassin Cards : 52 + 44 + 29 + 32 + 5 + 44 = 206 Templar Cards : 58 + 5 + 59 + 43 + 107 + 22 = 294 Total - 500 But some cards have a gold T like animus reboot so is that still a Templar card? Yes so that's a templar card... Did you count that in Assassin? We really only want to count the rares - so out of all the gold ones, how many do you have in "A" and how many in "+"? Like these:  So never mind the white and black symbol cards - just count the gold cards for now  |
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Post by Pete on Jan 4, 2012 8:54:52 GMT -5
Oh ok, the rare cards only -
Templar - 6 + 2 + 1 + 5 + 0 + 5 = 19
Assassin - 5 + 0 + 3 + 1 + 5 + 0 = 14
Pete
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Post by Tuism on Jan 4, 2012 9:34:32 GMT -5
Great info! It actually looks pretty 50/50 - especially if you take out the starter deck (I don't know what the starter deck is either, though).
A lot of people were speculating that mixed packs favoured templars. This would be the first bit of data regarding this.
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Post by Pete on Jan 4, 2012 9:43:49 GMT -5
I have been getting a good mix so far with the "mixed pack" so i will probably carry on with that.
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Post by xatria on Jan 4, 2012 12:03:19 GMT -5
I don't think you can conclude anything regarding probability of each faction with such a small sample.
You can just take developer word for it that the code does 50/50 but there's still a minuscule chance someone could get mostly one faction or the other.
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Post by crazygambit on Jan 4, 2012 13:28:32 GMT -5
I don't think you can conclude anything regarding probability of each faction with such a small sample. You can just take developer word for it that the code does 50/50 but there's still a minuscule chance someone could get mostly one faction or the other. A 30 sample is no longer minuscule. You can infer with pretty high accuracy whether the split is really 50/50 or not. However to do it, you need to remove the templar rares that come with the starter deck. Someone could make a new account and do it. |
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Post by xatria on Jan 4, 2012 14:08:20 GMT -5
True.. you can conclude that the probability is 50/50 with pretty high confidence level/accuracy with 30 samples. Miniscule was referring the chance that someone getting way more of one faction over the other after 30 packs with the stated 50/50 chance.
IIRC, starter deck has 50 cards after tutorial missions and there are at least 2 rares: Il Carnefice and Green Agent that returns your agents to hand.
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Post by crazygambit on Jan 4, 2012 14:56:46 GMT -5
True.. you can conclude that the probability is 50/50 with pretty high confidence level/accuracy with 30 samples. Miniscule was referring the chance that someone getting way more of one faction over the other after 30 packs with the stated 50/50 chance. IIRC, starter deck has 50 cards after tutorial missions and there are at least 2 rares: Il Carnefice and Green Agent that returns your agents to hand. No, it's actually the other way around. You test to see if you can reject the claim that the probability is 50/50. I can either say with a 95% confidence that the probability is NOT 50/50 or I can't reject that claim (in which case the true probability MAY be 50/50, but I won't know for sure). I'll do it for 17/14 if you want. Have to look it up a bit, it's been a while since I took Statistics in college. |
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Post by Tuism on Jan 4, 2012 15:15:43 GMT -5
You guys are number crunching gods xatria lost me the previous reply and now you've completely blown my mind To me it's as close to 50% as I'll ever find out by myself, as I'm not putting anything into mixed packs myself - I like my sureties |
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Post by crazygambit on Jan 4, 2012 15:42:29 GMT -5
At 17/14 the difference is close enough that it could be by chance. I.e we can't say with any certaintly the probability is NOT 50/50. It would have to be 20/11 before we could say with a 95% confidence that the probability of getting a templar card is higher.
So until we get more data, move along, nothing to see here.
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Post by xatria on Jan 4, 2012 17:41:22 GMT -5
I'm just making un-quantified claims using words like miniscule, way more, etc. The thing with these words, I can assign any number to them later and claim I'm never wrong in the first place  I'm just applying simple probability 50:50 as in coin toss. You can think of Templar and Assassin as head and tail. 1 card: 50% of Templar or Assassin 2 cards: 25% of 2 Templars or 2 Assassins, 50% of 1 each etc How do you apply statistics here since the population isn't fixed per se, as in the more you buy the bigger the population is? |
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Post by Raphael Majere on Jan 4, 2012 23:16:51 GMT -5
Let's all cool down a bit. |
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Post by Tuism on Jan 5, 2012 2:45:39 GMT -5
Added a link to ringel's great post for beginning player strategies in the beginner's guide under getting animus points |
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Post by crazygambit on Jan 5, 2012 11:23:29 GMT -5
I'm just making un-quantified claims using words like miniscule, way more, etc. The thing with these words, I can assign any number to them later and claim I'm never wrong in the first place I'm just applying simple probability 50:50 as in coin toss. You can think of Templar and Assassin as head and tail. 1 card: 50% of Templar or Assassin 2 cards: 25% of 2 Templars or 2 Assassins, 50% of 1 each etc How do you apply statistics here since the population isn't fixed per se, as in the more you buy the bigger the population is? It's not that complicated (especially using Excel). First you have to determine that chance of getting 17 or more templar cards in 31 packs if the probability of getting one is 50%. For that you have to calculate the binomial probability of each number. As an example let's calculate the probability of getting exactly 17 templars in 31 packs: (31 17) * 0,5^17 * 0,5^14 = 12,35% (the parenthesis is a combinatorial, 31!/17!*14!) Then you have to calculate the probability of getting 18, 19 and so on. The probability of getting 17 or more templars thus is 36%. For us to rule out that the probability of getting templars is 50% the result we get should be less than 5% probable by chance. That would be so if he had gotten 21 templars out of 31 mixed packs. With the results we have we can't conclusively deny the Ubisoft claim that the packs aren't 50/50. |
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