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Post by Rob (Roebidoebi) on Mar 27, 2012 3:57:06 GMT -5
btw, there are a lot of sucky assassin rares. Don't be too disappointed when you get them. Not every asssasin pack will yield you a Ezio, Assassin or Gold.  Rightly so! Who wants one of my 11 high profile assassinations? They are in excelent condition and have never been played with! |
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Post by Ringel on Mar 27, 2012 8:54:04 GMT -5
We're talking about 18 packs in the example... But what I was trying to say is that even though your chances are slightly better getting assassin crime rares and Templar order rares from mixed packs (see Ringels post) on the long run (Ringel is assuming a 50% split). Your chances are 59% that you do not get a 50/50 distribution and get lesser assassin than Templar rares in which case Ringels approach will result in lesser Assassin rares and particularly less assassin crime rares. I hope that makes sense... You have an equal chance to get more Assassin rares too. So you could end up with more. You certainly do not have a 59% chance of getting fewer Assassin rares than Templar rares. Something is off with your calculations. (That is like claiming a fair coin will flip more heads than tails 59% of the time... What are you talking about?) |
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Post by Ringel on Mar 27, 2012 9:29:21 GMT -5
btw, there are a lot of sucky assassin rares. Don't be too disappointed when you get them. Not every asssasin pack will yield you a Ezio, Assassin or Gold. Heh, see my "success!" post. That's true regardless of the odds, though, regardless of which packs you open. |
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Post by madstryfe on Mar 27, 2012 14:02:20 GMT -5
In any event, I've started to buy mixed packs now thanks to this thread  . Which means the next time I drop cash into IAPs will probably be an all mixed pack day. I'm only doing this btw because my overall collection has a surplus of templar cards and a fair amount of often played templar rares. This is by no means a recommendation for new players to burn their Daily 500 on mixed packs if they don't have staple cards to start with. |
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eev
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Post by eev on Mar 28, 2012 2:54:40 GMT -5
sometimes mixed packs can be quite mean, i bought only several of them and all rares were templar but funny is that in one of the packs the top row was only assassin cards and the bottom row only templar lol.
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Post by Tuism on Mar 28, 2012 3:03:14 GMT -5
Did I mention the only mixed pack I bought was a Political Patronage? But I prefer the surety of Assassin and Templar packs. I'm not a gambling man - if I gambled then I will only have myself to blame if I pulled 10 Templar rares out of 10 mixed packs |
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Post by Rob (Roebidoebi) on Mar 28, 2012 6:59:48 GMT -5
You have an equal chance to get more Assassin rares too. So you could end up with more. You certainly do not have a 59% chance of getting fewer Assassin rares than Templar rares. Something is off with your calculations. (That is like claiming a fair coin will flip more heads than tails 59% of the time... What are you talking about?) True, but... In your 18 packs example you have only an 18% chance of getting exactly 9 assassin and 9 Templar rares (0.5^18 * 18 C 9 = 18%). In all other cases your 50/50 assumption is no longer valid. The only point I wanted to make is that statistics only work on large enough numbers. So if you buy a lot of mixed packs your distribution is more likely less skewed. But if someone thinks to get an honest distribution by buying only 18 packs, he's mistaken. P.s. statistics was never my strongest point at university. I calculated the chance of getting more Templar rares than assassin rares as: P(0 ass. Rares) + P(1 ass. Rare) + ... + P(8 ass. Rares) Where P(n ass. Rares) = 0.5^18 * 18 C n If that's not the way to do it than sorry for the confusion... |
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Post by Ringel on Mar 28, 2012 9:42:02 GMT -5
My calculations do not depend on you getting exactly 50/50 only on having a 50/50 chance. Of course you won't get exactly the same, but the odds of pulling Black Assassin rares is better per credit with mixed packs.
I'll check your numbers later, but if the chance of pulling exactly 9 and 9 is 18%, then the chance of pulling fewer than nine must be exactly half of what is left or 41%, and the chance of pulling more than nine must be 41% as well. The overall probability balances out.
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Post by Ringel on Mar 28, 2012 10:57:01 GMT -5
P.s. statistics was never my strongest point at university. I calculated the chance of getting more Templar rares than assassin rares as: P(0 ass. Rares) + P(1 ass. Rare) + ... + P(8 ass. Rares) Where P(n ass. Rares) = 0.5^18 * 18 C n If that's not the way to do it than sorry for the confusion... That's the way, but you should double check your computation. If you plug in the number you get approx 41%. |
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Post by Rob (Roebidoebi) on Mar 29, 2012 3:28:51 GMT -5
Ringel, thanks for the update.
I must admit that the 59% was a strange outcome as the distribution should be symmetric and two times 59% is already more than 100%. This should have stopped me from writing it down in the first place...
So now I'll go off to mess-up the thread you started anew about the same topic. ;-)
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eev
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Post by eev on Apr 7, 2012 16:41:37 GMT -5
bought more iaps and also played a lot and still i have only 2 copies of court order and still short of blue rare and not even close to having a playset of them and i have dozens of other color rare cards, that is just really annoying.
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Post by Ringel on Apr 7, 2012 16:47:05 GMT -5
The devs said they are going to fix the distribution, so rares and uncommons are picked first. I don't know if they have, since it is a server side fix.
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eev
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Post by eev on Apr 7, 2012 16:56:44 GMT -5
Ringelthat's cool to know thanks, just was a bit pissed off post again because i need these cards.
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Post by Tuism on Apr 7, 2012 17:22:51 GMT -5
even with a "fixed" distribution you won't be getting 20 different Templar rares in 20 packs, much less "all the cards" that you need. The market coming in hopefully a week will be a much more effective solution to finding cards you "need". I have plenty that I'm releasing, just as many others on the forum |
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Post by Brontobeuf on Apr 7, 2012 17:59:38 GMT -5
Indeed, considering the big personal sample of card I bought, the cards I don't have are mainly Templar Order Rare and Assassin Crime Rare. Rosa in Fiore and Castel di San Angelo first. Not an issue for me because the Market place will solve this.
Nice spot Ringel.
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. Which means the next time I drop cash into IAPs will probably be an all mixed pack day.
