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Post by Tuism on Mar 26, 2012 4:36:19 GMT -5
Well, dang, can't believe I didn't figure this out earlier. Since the mixed packs have an even distribution of colors, all the rares should be equally likely when drawn from those packs. Now that is peculiar. The question is, though, is a smaller percentage of a smaller sample a better chance to get "that card" you want, or a would a bigger percentage of a bigger sample get you a better chance? I wonder if it can be worked out based on the numbers we have, including the rarity survey and the colour counts we did. For me this is a purely an interesting philosophical and statistical question only... I'm certainly not going to start buying mixed packs to hope to get a La Volpe  |
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mana
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Post by mana on Mar 26, 2012 4:40:42 GMT -5
i got WAY more assassin cards than templar cards when buying mixed. its like 75% assassin rares for me... just luck? i think so... but still i should mention it ^^
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Post by Tuism on Mar 26, 2012 4:48:13 GMT -5
i got WAY more assassin cards than templar cards when buying mixed. its like 75% assassin rares for me... just luck? i think so... but still i should mention it ^^ Out of how many? My mixed pack experience has been 100% assassin - in fact a PP - but I've only bought one  But we're talking now is it easier to get these supposedly rarer rares - in both Templar and Assassin - not just Assassin rare |
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mana
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Post by mana on Mar 26, 2012 4:58:02 GMT -5
hmm i guess i bought about 25 mixed ones.
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Post by Ringel on Mar 26, 2012 6:46:59 GMT -5
To answer Tuism, unless there is something really going on with the distribution that we don't know about, if you are after black rare Assassin cards, mixed packs will give you better odds. Other color Assassin rares, pure Assassin packs are best.
If you are after Templar rares of any kind, the sheer quantity makes Templar packs the best bet.
If you are still building both collections, like me, mixed packs are probably best (I usually buy 1 of each. 2 mixed will give me better odds of getting 'rare rares')
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Post by Ringel on Mar 26, 2012 6:50:56 GMT -5
Of course, the best way to get a specific rare will be through the auction house.
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Post by Tuism on Mar 26, 2012 7:28:48 GMT -5
In a mixed pack, you have a pool of double more than Assassin pack to draw from. That means for mixed packs to be better in getting Assassin rares means that Assassin packs' black rares have been tuned down below 50% of "normal" distribution... Is that true? Doesn't feel like it, cos I've never bought a Mixed pack and my black rare distrubtion isn't quite at 50% level... my Assassin rare numbers were: Gold: 41 Black: 27 Red: 66 Purple: 48 Blue: 18 Green: 53 Which works out to just over 50% of "normal... But I am one sample, and my maths SUCKS. does anyone else wanna try working it out? |
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Post by Ringel on Mar 26, 2012 9:48:57 GMT -5
Not per pack, but per credit. If you buy, say 10 assassin packs for 9000 credits, you can get 18 mixed packs. The 18 mixed packs will have an average of 9 assassin rares and 9 templar rares.
That will improve your odds of getting a black assassin rare.
(On the other hand 90 Templar packs will increase your chance of getting a blue Templar rare, by quite a bit.)
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Post by Tuism on Mar 26, 2012 10:07:18 GMT -5
So by numbers, the likelihood, per 9000 credit (for example) of the Mixed packs to get "rare" assassins blacks are completely average and untweaked, while the likelihood of getting that/those same assassin rares are tweaked down a tad.
The difference in ratio to spend is only the tweaked down-ness, then. Makes sense!
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Post by Ringel on Mar 26, 2012 22:31:16 GMT -5
So I dropped 4.99 on the game and bought 5 mixed packs, and it worked! I drew one blue Templar rare and one black Assassin rare! ... Octavian De Valois and High Profile Assassination. &^%$# card luck. |
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Post by Tuism on Mar 27, 2012 0:22:24 GMT -5
See if the same amount spent on assassin packs would have gotten an assssin black rare actually nevermind that's 2.5 assassin packs. Lol |
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Post by Rob (Roebidoebi) on Mar 27, 2012 3:28:37 GMT -5
Not per pack, but per credit. If you buy, say 10 assassin packs for 9000 credits, you can get 18 mixed packs. The 18 mixed packs will have an average of 9 assassin rares and 9 templar rares. That will improve your odds of getting a black assassin rare. (On the other hand 90 Templar packs will increase your chance of getting a blue Templar rare, by quite a bit.) For the same 9000 credits you can also get 9 assassin packs and 9 Templar packs. This guarantees 9 Assassin rares. However the chance of getting 8 or less assassin rares in your set-up is 59%. In which case you are screwed and now have a significantly lower chance of getting the Templar order and Assassin crime rares you want than simply getting 9 Assassin packs. I would not take that chance... |
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Post by Tuism on Mar 27, 2012 3:35:32 GMT -5
Not per pack, but per credit. If you buy, say 10 assassin packs for 9000 credits, you can get 18 mixed packs. The 18 mixed packs will have an average of 9 assassin rares and 9 templar rares. That will improve your odds of getting a black assassin rare. (On the other hand 90 Templar packs will increase your chance of getting a blue Templar rare, by quite a bit.) For the same 9000 credits you can also get 9 assassin packs and 9 Templar packs. This guarantees 9 Assassin rares. However the chance of getting 8 or less assassin rares in your set-up is 59%. In which case you are screwed and now have a significantly lower chance of getting the Templar order and Assassin crime rares you want than simply getting 9 Assassin packs. I would not take that chance... I'm not quite clear on what your meaning is here, do you mean you won't take the chance of getting significantly lower chance of Templar order rares and Assassin crime rares from 20 mixed packs as opposed to 10 assassin and 10 templar packs? This is getting confusing to describe |
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Post by Raphael Majere on Mar 27, 2012 3:53:11 GMT -5
btw, there are a lot of sucky assassin rares. Don't be too disappointed when you get them. Not every asssasin pack will yield you a Ezio, Assassin or Gold. |
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Post by Rob (Roebidoebi) on Mar 27, 2012 3:53:43 GMT -5
We're talking about 18 packs in the example...
But what I was trying to say is that even though your chances are slightly better getting assassin crime rares and Templar order rares from mixed packs (see Ringels post) on the long run (Ringel is assuming a 50% split). Your chances are 59% that you do not get a 50/50 distribution and get lesser assassin than Templar rares in which case Ringels approach will result in lesser Assassin rares and particularly less assassin crime rares.
I hope that makes sense...
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